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Mechanical Market Timing Track Record
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YTD Results as of September 29, 2023 - The beginning 2023 results were fantastic, followed by a couple volatile months. So far our members have profited
+12.57% (2023 YTD Average)
(+12.43% SPY,
+14.17% DIA, and
+11.10% QQQ). Our current signal is up +4.09%.
State of the Market - The stock market is dropping as investors grapple with a number of headwinds, including: Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance: The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy continues to play a pivotal role in shaping the economic outlook. The Fed’s hawkish stance has spooked investors, as higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield, which moves inversely to bond prices, already stands at its highest since 2007 after surging in recent months, and could continue climbing if rates remained high. This could potentially slow down economic growth by making borrowing more expensive for businesses. This is particularly impacting the SPY and QQQ. Inflation: The U.S. economy is navigating a complex landscape marked by a series of challenges. Inflation, which had soared to 40-year highs earlier in 2022, has cooled somewhat with the current rate standing at 3.67%. This figure, calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for the last 12 months ending in August 2023, still exerts pressure on corporate earnings and consumer spending. Central bank policy: The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy continues to play a pivotal role in shaping the economic outlook. Interest rates have been held steady at a 22-year high of between 5.25% and 5.5%, marking the second pause in the six policy meetings so far this year. This could potentially slow down economic growth by making borrowing more expensive for businesses. Geopolitical risks: The war in Ukraine is still ongoing, and there is still a risk of escalation. This is weighing on investor sentiment and could lead to further volatility in the market. Corporate earnings: Second quarter earnings reports are coming in mixed, with some companies beating expectations but others reporting weaker outlooks. This is adding to market uncertainty. Supply chain disruptions: Supply chain disruptions persist, including difficulties in logistics and transportation, semiconductor shortages, pandemic-related restrictions on economic activity, labor shortages, and shipment delays. These disruptions are causing shortages of goods and services, further pressuring prices. Slowing economic growth: Recent data on retail sales, manufacturing, and housing suggest the economy may be slowing. Concerns about a potential recession continue to linger. Rising interest rates: Rising interest rates are making it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which could lead to slower economic growth. Rising commodity prices: Rising commodity prices are putting pressure on corporate margins and consumer spending. According to a recent poll by the World Economic Forum, nearly two-thirds of economists believe a recession is likely to happen. However, you can take steps to protect your investments and come out ahead. One way to do that is by using a proven trading system like MMT. With MMT, you'll have a powerful timing system on your side that can help you navigate changing market conditions and stay with the trends, up or down. It takes just a few seconds to sign up for the free 3-day trial or become a member. Note: Our YTD starts from the first signal to close in 2023. You can see the individual trades in our trading history PDF. |
An Example of Our Methodology based on the
"Actual Trading History of QQQ in Year 2016"
The chart above shows our trading history for the ETF "QQQ". Red circles indicate the price & time we went to short sell positions. Green circles show the price & time for long positions. The green lines indicate profitable trades. The shorter red lines indicate nonprofitable trades. Notice how the system 'always' produces profitable gains for trending markets (i.e., trading either up or down). For lateral markets (i.e., nontrending with no clear direction), the system has small negative losses. Losing signals are part of any timing strategy. The key is minimizing large losses or drawdowns. Our system is designed to capture the large trending moves of the market, which will generate a larger return than the sum of all smaller losses. Our methodology for Year 2016 returned +31.43% for all QQQ trades, whereas the buy-and-hold produced +5.92%.
Overall Performance - From 2005 to 2022, we have outperformed the stock market 15 of 17 years. If you notice on the table, we never had a losing year. Our average return per year is +23.49% DIA, +23.20% SPY, and +29.92% QQQ, for an average of +25.54%, whereas the buy-and-hold is +8.16% DIA, +8.64% SPY, and +14.03% QQQ with an average of +10.28%. Overall, we are outperforming the stock market by +15.26% per year since 2005.
Results are based on a "fixed" amount of capital (meaning they are non-compounded).
Individual trades for previous years can be found here: Download in PDF format.
The main fact to observe from the table is that we are consistently beating the buy-and-hold strategy of the market.
If your current trading style has not matched our performance over the last several years,
we encourage you to join now and prosper from our valuable service!
"Timing is everything." - Ray Dalio, Principles: Life and Work
